Building Blocks of Intelligent Decision-Making
Decision-making
is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among
alternatives. Whether an action or opinion, every decision making process
produces a final choice.
The decision
making process begins when an action needs to be taken, but one doesn’t know
exactly what to do or where to begin. The reasoning process can be rational or
intuitive, with most decisions based on explicit or implied assumptions.
Applying The Principles of Decision Making
Judiciously
applying specific decision making principles will more often than not make the
difference between taking effective or ineffective action. Each decision made
should serve as a learning experience.
There are 10
basic steps to follow when a decision has to be made. These include:
- Identify the purpose of the decision. What exactly is the problem to
be addressed and why does it need to be solved?
- Gather information. What factors does the problem involve?
- Identify principles with which to judge the alternatives. What
standards and judgment criteria should the solution meet?
- Brainstorm and list a wide variety of possible choices.
- Generate as many likely solutions as possible.
- Evaluate each choice in terms of its consequences, using predetermined
standards and judgment criteria to determine the pros and cons of each
alternative.
- Settle upon the best alternative. This becomes much easier once the
above steps have been undertaken.
- Translate the decision into a specific action or plan of action steps.
- Carefully execute the plan.
- Evaluate the outcome of the decision and subsequent action steps.
Within this process it is important to identify the lessons learned. This
is an important step for further development of more effective decision
making skills and judgment.
Building Block One: Creating an Objectives Hierarchy
The first
step in the process is to identify the purpose of the decision-making effort:
What is the problem and why does it need to be solved?
In order to
achieve this end it is important to generate, record and display an objectives
hierarchy by creating a list in outline format. (Software applications are also
available that allow individuals or groups to create organizational charts that
work well in generating visually appealing objectives hierarchies.)
In
establishing an objectives hierarchy it is essential to gather as much
information as possible to identify the factors involved in the problem.
Objectives should flow from “Why?” at higher levels to “How?” at lower levels.
Higher-level objectives tend to be broad, inclusive, and even ambiguous,
lower-level objectives more specific, which are mapped to real or actual
organizational and workplace attributes or characteristics.
The
objectives hierarchy should be inclusive, representing a mix of stakeholder
views, and avoiding value judgments in respect to one objective over another.
Building Block Two: Designing Alternatives
For each
objective or group of objectives within the hierarchy, it is important to
identify the types of actions that would yield the optimal effect.
When
designing alternatives, various objectives should have been detailed and
considered within the hierarchy. With enough specificity, some may be flagged
for specific action or categorized as activity-driven.
Designing
alternatives tends to occur in two phases: identifying the principles by which
to judge the alternatives—i.e. the standards solutions should meet—and
brainstorming, or listing actual potential solutions.
Steps for Identifying Alternatives:
- For each objective or group of objectives in the hierarchy,
individuals identify the types of actions that would have the desired
effect.
- Two or more options for addressing each objective are defined. These
may be different types of activities, different levels, strategies, or
approaches for the same activity type, or modifications to ongoing related
activities. If there is already a proposed action, the activities that
comprise it are detailed in terms of how they align with the measured
criteria in the objectives.
- Specific actions are grouped into alternatives. If there are competing
objectives (perhaps reflecting different stakeholder values), alternatives
can be developed that favor different groupings of objectives. In other
words, different balances are sought among objectives in each alternative. Conversely, the same balance of objectives by different groupings of
actions can be striven for.
- If a revision of alternatives is needed,
it is wise to look for simple adjustments first. If major revisions are
needed, the objectives hierarchy and decision making model should be
revisited to determine whether erroneous or inconsistent logic led to
problems.
- An open mind should be maintained, with preconceptions about what is the
“best choice” not allowed to limit any or all solution options.
- For each alternative, specifics as to how, where, what, and when
actions will occur should be outlined. Here it is important to make
detailed assumptions about each modeled action early and explicitly in
order to minimize confusion when placing this information into a
structured decision making model.
- Results are recorded and activities could be plotted on a decision making map.
Building Block Three: Evaluating Each Choice
For each alternative,
it is best to be as specific as possible in terms of how, where, what, and when
actions will occur. An analysis of effects may suggest modification of one or
more alternatives or the creation of additional alternatives. If the latter is
the case it will be prudent to return to the first stage of the process.
It is
important to apply standards and judgment criteria (a set of indicators) to
determine the pros and cons of each alternative. When the best alternative is
identified, a process overview of the selected option is conducted.
During this
decision making and planning arena, it is important to make certain that an
action or set of actions is specifically geared toward achieving the objectives
identified.
Within the
evaluation or overview stage, further details can come to light that can either
be added to particular action steps or grouped into a different set of
alternatives.
Decision-making
is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among
alternatives. Whether an action or opinion, every decision making process
produces a final choice.
Day 1: Pick
out an important decision that you’ve been putting off. Write it down.
Identify principles with which to judge the alternatives. What
standards and judgment criteria should the solution meet? The criteria defines the action that is required for a decision. For
example, if you are trying to decide what to make for dinner, the
criteria may be a recipe that includes the ingredients you have on hand
and something that is kid-friendly.
Identify the purpose
of the decision. What exactly is the problem to be addressed and why
does it need to be solved?
Write this down.
Day 2: Gather information. What factors does the problem
involve?
Day 3: This is the fun creative part. Brainstorm and list a wide variety of possible choices. Generate as
many likely solutions
as possible. Don’t judge or evaluate yet. Write down any and every possibility
you have. Ask others for possible ideas.
Day 4: This
step takes awhile. Evaluate each choice/solution in
terms of its consequences, using the predetermined standards and judgment
criteria to determine the pros and cons of each alternative. Settle upon the best alternative.
This becomes much easier once the above steps have been undertaken.
Day 5: Translate the decision into a specific action or plan of action steps. Carefully execute
the plan. Once you’ve made a decision, act on it. So many people
get caught up in “paralysis by analysis”!
Evaluate the outcome of
the decision and subsequent action steps. This is an important step for further
development of more effective decision making skills and judgment.
With each decision, you get better and better.
There is no guarantee that all decisions made by going
through this process turn up perfect results. It is possible that there are NO
perfect outcomes. Understand that in many situations, no decision is not a choice. It is worse than a bad decision. You must decide on something.
Ask yourself 4 questions:
1.
What is one possibility?
2. What is another possibility?
3. Combine both possibilities into one
new possibility.
4. What is a possibility which doesn’t
have anything at all to do with 1-3?!
5. What is a completely different
possibility than ALL/ANY OF THE ABOVE?
This
process is called the Tetralemma Process.
The tetralemma, is a “tool”
which originates in traditional Indian reasoning and Buddhist philosophy and is
frequently used today to stimulate “thinking outside the box”. It aims to break
with a bipolar perception of the world, and the perceptions of problems as
“di-lemmas”. Whereas “western” or “European” logic follows a binary view in
which “either-or” thinking dominates, it is a crucial proposition of the
tetralemma that there exist at least four options on each perceived problem.
Tetralemma
Position A
Position B
Both A and B
Neither A nor B
None of this – but also
not this
The fifth position “none of
this but also not this” is not easy to understand. It tries to indicate that
there are further options and issues that are relevant for the perceived
problem but which can only be discovered through a process of action and
reflection. In a program evaluation in South Africa, the tetralemma was used to
get different ideas about the future of the program activities out into the
open, including hidden and less conscious issues:
The tetralemma is a process
tool, which means that we do not know all the positions from the very
beginning: they are created and formed through the process of working with the
tetralemma.
Source: Körppen et al. 2008
Now decide
to have a great weekend! Off you go!
